July 18, 2019
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litecoin price analysis

Litecoin (LTC) Technical Analysis: “Flappening” and Lightning Network Launch Carries LTC Towards $30

It turns out Charlie Lee was right again, as Litecoin has finally overtaken Bitcoin Cash by market capital after the hard-forked Bitcoin project extends its losses.

On February 25, 2018, Litecoin Founder Charlie Lee tweeted that a flippening between ETH and BTC will never happen, but predicted that a ‘flappening’ between BCH and LTC would definitely happen sometime this year. At the time, Litecoin was trailing behind Bitcoin Cash by nearly $9 billion in market capital but nevertheless dwarfed BCH daily trading volume by nearly 2x.

On December 14, this forecasted ‘flappening’ finally happened at around the $1.4 billion mark, as Litecoin pulled ahead into #7 position on the CMC listing. Not only is LTC now $163 million clear of BCH today, but this has also meant that Bitcoin Cash is now only $137 million ahead of its main market nemesis, Bitcoin SV.

Further news today from Coingate has helped continue driving new bullish support towards the Litecoin project, as the payment gateway platform announced that the Litecoin Lightning Network is ready to be deployed, and should go live soon. This is a huge milestone achievement for Litecoin, as users will now be able to make LTC payments across 1,000 new LN merchants.

Is this the turn around point for Litecoin, and will LTC be able to hold on to its new position above Bitcoin Cash? Let’s take a look.

The Story So Far

On the 4H LTC/USD, we can see that LTC broke bullish out of a 9-day falling wedge pattern yesterday, after successfully breaching the downtrending resistance on the fourth attempt.

From there, the asset erupted 13.6% in the opening bull run from $24.10 to $27.40, before correcting to $26.30. Renewed bullish support arrived later this morning to continue driving LTC upward – this time uptrending through the first main range (green) between $27.60 and $28.40, and into the second range above (blue), between the $28.40 and $29.30 levels.

This second main range has been a historically key area for Litecoin in the past, particularly the upper level at $29.30 which provided a strong support for LTC bulls back around November 25-27 and then again later on December 6.

If the price action can close above this range, it should create a strong footing for bullish traders again going forward.

Looking ahead, the next main region for LTC sits above between the $31.5 and $32.2 levels (upper blue area). Both levels have been strong resistances in the past and will likely create problems for LTC bulls over the short-term if the uptrend continues. The upper level at $32.20 was able to hold down LTC on three separate occasions during November 26, December 1 and December 4, and so we are expecting bears to defend this level heavily.

The Story Now

On the 4H indicators, we can see that bullish momentum is starting to struggle at the top resistance of the current range, at $29.30. The CMF is showing a brief decline in buying pressure as bulls likely become apprehensive as they close in on the psychological $30 level. However, other indicators seem to still favor a continuation:

-On the RSI we can see that the indicator line is still climbing high into the overbought region as buying momentum remains strong,

-The 12MA on the MACD is showing no sign of bearishly diverging towards the 26MA below.

-On the Ichimoku indicator, we can see that candles are still closing above the resisting kumo, which is a very promising signal of a bullish reversal. This is also accompanied by a strong bullish T/K crossover.

-On the Parabolic SAR, we can see that indicator dots are still appearing beneath the price action, as the trend remains under bullish control.

-The Aroon Up is also high above the Aroon Down line on the Aroon indicator, which further supports the Parabolic SAR signal that a bearish trend reversal is unlikely at this stage.

Litecoin Price Targets

All price target ROI’s are calculated from the asset’s current value at $28.90.

PT1: $29.30 (1.38% ROI)

PT2: $30.20 (4.50% ROI)

PT3: $31.50 (9.00% ROI)

PT4:$32.20 (11.42% ROI)


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