There’s currently around 5,500 ETH waiting to be cashed out on Augur’s prediction markets – specifically within the category of cryptocurrency price predictions.
Multiple open bets stand to be closed out on the stroke of midnight on new year’s eve, with most of them aimed at predicting the value of Ethereum by that time. Also included in the batch of new year predictions are gambles concerning the price of Augur’s own REP token; the value of Maker (MKR), as well as various Bitcoin-based bets.
The value of the REP token grew by 27% in the last twenty-four hours, topping the $9 mark on Saturday morning. At the same time, trading activity on Bithumb saw REP climb to a value of $90 dollars, although the volume and price were subsequently excluded from the market-wide aggregate.
Augur ETH Bets
There are currently fifteen Ethereum price predictions waiting to be cashed out come new year. The bet with the most riding on it is: “Will the price of Ethereum exceed $500 dollars at the end of 2018?”
Over 2,556 ETH remains staked on this question, and right now the overwhelming majority predict the answer to be in the negative. Assuming you could find someone to match your bet, a stake of 0.97 ETH predicting a ‘No’ answer would garner winnings of 0.03 ETH – such is the 97% swing between the two outcomes. Likewise, it would only take a bet of 0.03 ETH to win 0.97 ETH based on current odds.
The next most popular bet concerns the price of Augur’s REP token, with over 1,285 ETH staked on the outcome. There’s a 14.98% chance that REP tokens will be worth over $32 by the end of 2018 according to Augur’s users. That gives the token two days to hit 300% growth if those ‘Yes’ bets are to succeed.
Augur also allows users to exit positions early based on the fluctuating value of their shares. So, while the market for “Ethereum Call/Put Options, Hedging Dec. 31, 2018” only has 132 ETH staked on it, almost 1,000 ETH worth of volume has passed through this market since it was created in July.
Augur Price – REP/USD
Augur’s value was on the up moving into December 29th, climbing from a coin price of $7.11 up to $9.05 – not far from the monthly high of $9.82. The 27.2% surge was helped by an 80% increase in trade volume, which rose from $2 million to $3.8 million.
The value of REP hit as high as the $90 mark on Bithumb’s REP/KRW market. This price was since excluded from the aggregate price, leaving REP/ETH as the most concentrated market with close to a third of the daily volume coming from the LATOKEN exchange.
Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.
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